Experiment code 19.1.30
Experiment Title “Population dynamics and growth patterns of mango Hopper and fruit fly through the statistical model.”
Research Type Departmental Research
Experiment Background Mango, Mangifera indica L. (Anacardiaceae) is one of the appetizing fruit crops of tropical as well as subtropical regions of India and is known as “king of fruits” due to its delicious taste, attractive color, savoring flavour and high nutritive value More than 300 insect- pest species have been recorded to attack mango in different parts of the world. Of these, 188 species have been reported in India. Mango hopper is a major pest of mango found in all mango growing areas. Three species of mango hoppers viz., Idioscopus nitidulus, I. clypealis and Amritodus atkinsoni are commonly found all over India. Out of these, I. nitidulus and S. dorsalis are major dominant species and can cause significant damage at flowering stage of the crop. The intensity of mango hopper is severe during the period of vegetative flush and flowering. Both nymphs and adults cause damage to all tender parts of mango. They suck cell sap from tender foliage, inflorescence and small fruits. Plant parts become weak and ultimately affects on yield. About 60 percent of fruit yield losses have been recorded due to mango hopper. Hoppers also excrete honey dew resulting in growth of sooty mould on dorsal surface of leaves, inflorescence, branches and rachis of the fruits. Which further interferes with the photosynthetic activity of the plant, ultimately resulting in non-setting of flowers, dropping of immature fruits and reducing the yield. Among all mango pests, fruit flies are recorded as major pest of mango and three species viz; Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), B. zonata (Saunders) and B. correcta (Bezzi) are considered as major species. B. dorsalis is reported as predominating species and its population is found to be recorded throughout the year in mango ecosystem of south Gujarat (Patel et al., 2013). During ripening stage of mango fruits, female fruit fly lays eggs in the fruit skin with the help of ovipositor and after hatching, the maggots start feeding inside the fruit pulp and causes internal discoloration, off flavors, pulp rotting and fruit drop on the ground and pupates in the soil. Patel et al. (2013) observed that fruit flies cause up to 40 per cent yield loss in heavy rainfall zone of south Gujarat. Hoppers, thrips and fruit flies are recorded as serious pest in south Gujarat mango ecosystem and elsewhere at flowering to fruiting stages and causes significant yield losses (Rahman and Kuldeep, 2007; Kumar et al., 2014; Gundappa et al., 2014; Mouly et al., 2017; Bana et. al., 2017; Bana et. al., 2018; Bana et al., 2021). 2 The distribution pattern of Hopper and fruit fly and its occurrence in different developing stages specially in context of different changing weather is critical . keeping of view this motivation following hypothesis has been framed:
Experiment Group Social Science
Unit Type (02)EDUCATION UNIT
Unit (12)NAVINCHANDRA MAFATLAL COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE (NAVSARI)
Department (247)Statistics Department, NMCA, Navsari
BudgetHead (303/12712/03)303/03/REG/01784
Objective

1. To study the population growth study of mango Hopper and fruit fly in mango through various
non- linear models.
2. To evaluate the weather relationship with population dynamics of the insects
PI Name (NAU-EMP-2015-000063)ALOK SHRIVASTAVA
PI Email igkvalok@nau.in
PI Mobile 9408985065
Year of Approval 2023
Commencement Year 2023
Completion Year 2025
Research Methodology

Various nonlinear model will be applied in order to asses fitting of the model
on the observed data ,
The detail of the model are as:
(i) Monomolecular model (Draper and Smith, 1981)
………….(1)

(ii) Logistic model (Winsor, 1932)

…(2
)

(iii) Gompertz model (Gompertz, 1825)

…(3
)

(iv) Richards model (Richard, 1959)

…(4
)

is the population of the pest at time t=0
K is the carrying capacity of the system
t is the time
the population of the pest at time t
r is the intrinsic growth rate of pest
m is the additional parameter of the Richards model
(V)The model proposed by Prajneshu was rewritten by Singh et al. (2017) which is mentioned

below:

(5)

Where, is insect population density at time t,
a, b and d are the descriptive parameters which can be related to interpretative parameters by the
following equations:

(2)

4
(3)
(4)

Where,
λ is the intrinsic birth rate per capita,
γ the death rate divided by the cumulative population density and the initial population density at
time 0 and other similar model will be applied for fitting the same after confirmation of the
assumptions of randomness and normality of residuals. Apart from that, other non–linear models
will also be also utilized to achieve the objectives.
In order to see the impact of weather by means of different standard metrological weeks on
populating dynamics of insect’s correlation analysis with its significance and regression and other
similar model will run.
(NAU-EMP-2015-000063)
ALOK SHRIVASTAVA 		igkvalok@nau.in 9408985065 19-10-2023
Active
(NAU-EMP-2012-000457)
SACHIN MAHADEV CHAVAN 		smchavan@nau.in 9712868518 19/10/2023
Active
(NAU-EMP-2008-000170)
ABHISHEK GYANESHCHANDER SHUKLA 		abhishekshukla@nau.in 9724304675 19/10/2023
Active
(NAU-EMP-2019-000537)
NITIN VARSHNEY 		nitin.caw@nau.in 9157548912 19/10/2023
Active
(NAU-EMP-2009-000597)
DEVENDRA KUMAR SHIV DAYAL SHARMA 		dksharma@nau.in 8128988972 19/10/2023
Active
(NAU-EMP-2014-000353)
YOGESH ASHOK GARDE 		y.garde@nau.in 8469764778 20/10/2023
Active
Sr. No. Operation Date Nature of Data Value of Data Operation Status
Sr. No. Operation Date Operation Status
Sr. No. Operation Date Operation Status
1 15/02/2024 In Progress
Sr. No. Operation Date Operation Status
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