| Experiment code | 19.9.3.59 |
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| Experiment Title | Dynamics of Wholesale Prices and Arrivals of Pointed Gourd in Major Markets of Gujarat |
| Research Type | Survey Work |
| Experiment Background | Pointed Gourd is one of the most important vegetable crop of Gujarat.Pointed gourd belongs to the family Cucurbitaceae is widely grown in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, in some parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat and some hilly tracts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. It is called as the ‘King of gourd’ because it is one of the mostnutritive and wholesome vegetable. In Gujarat the area under vegetable crops is 8.33 lakh ha, with the production of 16.73 lakh tonne in the year 2021-22. In Gujarat the area under cucurbits is 1.26 lakh ha with the production of 19.32 lakh MT in 2021-22. In South Gujarat the area under cucurbits is 0.28 lakh ha with the production of 4.46 lakh MT. Pointed gourd is commercially grown in the district of Surat, Bharuch, Navsari, Tapi, Dangs and Valsad. The variations in the output of the vegetable crops lead to wide fluctuations in their prices, exposing the vegetable growers to more risk than the growers of other crops. Moreover, arrival fluctuations are responsible for short-term price fluctuations, resulting in imbalances in demand and supply fundamentals of agricultural commodities. Price uncertainty is mainly due to perishability and seasonality in vegetable crops. This affects both the producer and consumer in the case of low prices received by the producers and higher prices paid by the consumers. Stable price play an important role in determining the farmers’ income. Therefore, the analysis of price behavior helps producers and intermediaries make decisions, viz. ‘When to grow and sell?’ on the producer part and ‘When, where, and how to store and dispose of the produce?’ on the part of a middleman. Vegetable price swings have a significant impact on vegetable growers and place them at greater risk relative to growers of other crops. Hence, it is difficult for both producers, particularly small and marginal farmers with a low propensity to save and a lack of access to effective saving instruments, and consumers to cope with high market volatility. Therefore, to achieve the goal of efficient marketing to formulate a sound agricultural price policy for price stabilization and supply regulation, there is a need to properly analyze the interrelationship between market arrivals and prices. In addition, the information regarding market arrival and price behavior is very important for the producer as it helps in finding out the best time for marketing to fetch higher profit. In order to device the appropriate ways and means for reducing the price fluctuations of agricultural commodities, there is a need to have through understanding of the price behaviour over time.Under this backdrop, an attempt has been made to fix this issue to examine the pattern of market arrival and prices of Pointed Gourd in terms of a degree of variability, a degree of the relationship between market arrival and prices over time well as space. Keeping in view the significance and realizing the facts above the study is carried out with the following specific objectives. |
| Experiment Group | Social Science |
| Unit Type | (02)EDUCATION UNIT |
| Unit | (15)ASPEE AGRIBUSINESS MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE (NAVSARI) |
| Department | (281)ASPEE Agribusiness Managment Institute, NAU, Navsari |
| BudgetHead | (341/12951/00)341/01/REG/00363 |
| Objective |
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| PI Name | (NAU-EMP-2007-000399)RUCHIRA ABHISHEK SHUKLA |
| PI Email | ruchira.shukla@nau.in |
| PI Mobile | 9725018793 |
| Year of Approval | 2023 |
| Commencement Year | 2023 |
| Completion Year | 2024 |
| Research Methodology |
Market: The agricultural markets selected for the study is APMC, Surat, Ahmedabad and Vadodara market which are the biggest markets in Gujarat for Fruits and vegetables. The selection of the market is based on the availability of required time series data consistently for a long period and maximum quantity of average annual arrivals of Pointed Gourd in this market. Crop and time period: Pointed Gourd crop is selected for the study on the basis of area, production and importance of the vegetable crop for the region. The analysis will be performed on the basis of monthly and annual time series data on wholesale price over a period of Fifteen years from 2008 to 2022. Data: The study will rely upon the secondary time series data on monthly market prices of Pointed Gourd collected from the Agricultural Produce Market Committee and AGMARKNET. Analytical Framework With a view to examine the various objectives stated above the following statistical tools will be used.
In order to analyze the trend and seasonal variations in market prices, multiplicative model of the following form will be used. Y = T × C × S × I Trends in Market Prices To ascertain the general direction of movement of prices, the method of least square trend line will be fitted for selected market. The following equation will be used Y=a+bt Where, Y=Trend values for annual average price in rupees per quintal a = intercept; b=Regression coefficient. t=time period
For the estimation of seasonal index, a 12-month moving average will be calculated as follows: A1=Y1+Y2+Y3+Y4+………..+Y1212
A2=Y2+Y3+Y4+Y5+………..+Y1312
A3=Y3+Y4+Y5+Y6+………..+Y1412 And the Centre Moving Average (CMA) will be calculated as: CMS1,2=A1+A22 Seasonal index is the ratio of observed value of price (Yt) to cantered moving average. E=YtCMA Where, E = Seasonal Factor or index Yt= Observed price in period t CMA = Centered Moving average. Seasonal Price Variation was examined by calculating average seasonal index using monthly data where each month’s price/seasonal index (EA) was computed as the average of the same month’s seasonal index for all years included in the moving average time series. Adjusted Seasonal Index or Grand Seasonal index (GSI) will be calculated by multiplying each month’s average seasonal index by a correction factor as: Adjusted Seasonal Index or GSIE=EA×1200EA Where, 1200EA The magnitude of price variability will be calculated as percentage of difference between highest and lowest de-seasonalized price in each year, as shown in following equation: Vt=Maximum Price-Minimum ProceMinumum Price×100 Where, Vt= magnitude of price variability in year t. The de-seasonalized price will be calculated by taking the ratio of actual price (Yt) to the average seasonal index (EA) for that month. The variability of price will be analyzed by calculating the average of price variability of each year.
Karl Pearson correlation coefficient will be calculated using the monthly data to analyze the relation between market arrivals and prices of pointed gourd in the selected markets using the following formula:
Gross storage return (GSR) can be used to evaluate the feasibility of storage. The GSR can be calculated by computing the percentage increase from seasonal low to seasonal high of Gross seasonal Index (Ngare et al. 2014; Mani et al. 2018). Mathematically, it can be expressed as: GSR=Highest GSI E-Lowest GSI ELowest GSI E×100 The higher percentage of GSR meant the return to storage for Pointed Gourd will be higher in market and vice versa. |
is the correction factor and, EA
is Average Seasonal index for a month
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(NAU-EMP-2007-000399) RUCHIRA ABHISHEK SHUKLA |
ruchira.shukla@nau.in | 9725018793 | 20-10-2023 |
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(NAU-EMP-2013-000974) VISHAL SHANKAR THORAT |
vishalthorat@nau.in | 8469552697 | 20/10/2023 |
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(NAU-EMP-2010-000397) SWATI SATYANARAYAN SHARMA |
swati.sharma@nau.in | 9662913378 | 20/10/2023 |
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(NAU-EMP-2010-000391) GAUTAMKUMAR RAMABHAI PARMAR |
gautam.parmar@nau.in | 8000525673 | 20/10/2023 |
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