Experiment code 18.3.24
Experiment Title Total Factor Productivity Growth of Sugar Industry in South Gujarat Region
Research Type Departmental Research
Experiment Background Sugar industries development is backbone to economic development of the nation. Sugarcane is the key raw material for the producing of sugar in India. Sugar growing in semi-tropical region is two-third of world sugar production. Sugar industry is second largest agro based industry after comparing the cotton industry in India. Sugar industry is also involve to make avail of sugar complexes by manufacturing sugar, bio-electricity, bio-ethanol, bio-manure and chemical, paper and particle board factories and cogeneration plants. In India, sugar consumption is around 26 million tones and is growing at 2%. Of the total consumption in India, about 60% goes to the industrial applications like dairy, confectionary, baking, soft drinks etc and the remaining 40% is used up by general consumers. And 80% of sugar is produced in UP, Karnataka & Maharashtra. India has a market share of 15% of world production. For the current year considering drop in area in the state of Maharashtra and parts of North Karnataka, we are expecting Indian sugar production to be in the range of 27.6 – 28.9 MMT. This will be downside to Indian sugar production after 2 year of heavy surplus. Total sugar production in the country in the current sugar season (2020-21) would be around 260 lakh tones, nearly 20 % lower than the 2019-20 season’s 331.61 lakh tones, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA-2020). The Indian sugar industry is self sufficient in its vigor needs and also makes surplus exportable power through cogeneration. The various byproducts of sugar industry also contribute to the economic growth of the nation to promoting a number of supplementary industries. Sugarcane has emerged as a multi-product crop used as a basic raw material for the production of sugar, ethanol, paper, electricity and besides a cogeneration of ancillary product. The feeding of cattle of sugarcane is important source of bio-energy and more demand in rural area. Molasses is an important nourish stock for distilleries. The ethanol requirement of the country is going up increasingly. In sugar industry, production of electricity using bagasse was the typical option and use of bagasse as an alternative raw material for wood pulp for economic and environmental sustainability. Although the industry contributes a lot to the socio-economic development of the country, it is plagued with a number of problems such as cyclical fluctuations, high support prices payable to farmers, lack of adequate working capital, partial decontrol and the uncertain export outlook. The licensing policy system followed by the government till 1998 did not permit capacity expansion of the existing mills and thus restricted them to avail economies of scale. Contrary to this, sugar industry all over the world has been consolidating and moving towards larger capacity per unit. The policies of regulations, controls and interventions in India are being pursued largely for the benefit of sugarcane growers and consumers, not for the interest of sugar producers (Singh, 2006). The control is right from the procurement of sugarcane to the marketing of sugar and its by-products. Minimum Statutory Price (MSP) of sugarcane is fixed by the Central Government and the State Government fixes State Advised Price (SAP) over and above the MSP. World Bank (1996) estimates that if the existing sugar policies continue in India, they could cost the economy around $2.00 billion a year by 2004. Apart from the domestic policies of control and regulation, distorted production and trade policies of some industrialised countries have also affected the sugar industry of developing countries including India by creating an inefficient pattern of world production, consumption and trade of sugar (Borrell and Duncan, 1992; Devadoss and Kropf, 1996; Larson and Borrell, 2001; and Oxfam, 2004). It is estimated that if sugar trade policies are reformed, net imports of sugar in these industrialised countries would increase by 15 million tonnes per year, that would create employment for nearly one million workers in developing countries. And, sugar price in the international market would increase by as much as 40 per cent (Mitchell, 2004). In recent years, however, the Indian sugar industry has undergone some policy changes. Mahajan Committee (Government of India, 1998) and Tuteja Committee (Government of India, 2004) made a number of recommendations for its revitalization. On the recommendation of Mahajan Committee, the industry was de-licensed in August 1998. With the de-licensing, sugar mills are now free to expand their capacities and also set up higher capacity new units without a license but at a distance of 15 kms away from the existing factory. Sugar Development Fund Act was amended with a view to provide soft loan to the industry for setting up cogeneration plants and for capacity expansion of existing plants. The government has also announced to blend five per cent ethanol in petrol in phased manner. The Electricity Bill 2003, provides opportunity to the industry to expand the cogeneration capacity, as surplus electricity can directly be sold by the mills to the bulk buyers, bypassing the resource-striven state electricity boards (Subramanian, 2004). Tuteja Committee’s recommendations to increasing the radial distance between two mills from 15 kms to 25 kms and servicing capacity expansion through greater productivity rather than increasing area under sugarcane would also help the industry in its vertical expansion. Gujarat is considered to be one of the leading states in India in the co-operative sugar factories and South Gujarat is recognized as the most important centre of successful sugar co-operatives. The South Gujarat is pre-dominant sugar producing region in the state, having remarkable growth and performance of sugar industry in the state. It has dominant role in bringing about major structural changes in the Indian sugar industry. South Gujarat has always been producing a major portion of sugarcane and sugar in the state. The state contributes 22 sugar factories among them 19 co-operative sugar factories are in south Gujarat region. A continuous progress has been observed in co-operative sugar factories in Gujarat. The co-operative factories working in this region are well known to provide the best extension services both with regard to dissemination of information and knowledge about new agricultural technology as well as in making available the necessary inputs and services such as provision of irrigation facilities, supply of fertilizers and pesticides, new varieties of sugarcane harvesting and transportation of sugarcane etc. As a result the sugarcane growers are able to get remunerative returns for their efforts and investments. Besides, most of the co-operative sugar factories have provided social amenities to the farmers in the producing area. They have also generated employment opportunities in the rural area. The production performance of the co-operative sugar factories shows some geographical differences in production. The sugarcane production has been experienced wide fluctuations and in turn had affected the production of sugar. There are some factories, which are considered as sick units. The economics of the sugar factories, besides being largely depends upon the sugar recovery, working days during season, crushing capacity utilization and cane supply, break-even point, government price policy, age of the factory, capital investments etc. The sugar factories having lower average sugar recovery and working days during season, short supply of cane have to face a serious concern. Their condition further deteriorates because of the restriction of transportation inadequacy. Productivity growth is one of the major determinants of competitiveness and profitability of a firm. A higher level of productivity growth may result in lower product prices, better remunerations and working conditions to the employees, better returns to investors and adequate surplus to the firm for plant expansion and modernization. Technical change and technical efficiency change are the two sources of productivity growth. A study of these sources is crucial for identifying the factors that are responsible for the productivity stagnation and for adopting appropriate measures at firm, industry and government levels to improve the productivity. So that, in this study, we examine the productivity growth and its sources in the sugar mills of South Gujarat. This type of study will remain helpful for suggesting remedial measures for overall improvement in this industry.
Experiment Group Social Science
Unit Type (02)EDUCATION UNIT
Unit (12)NAVINCHANDRA MAFATLAL COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE (NAVSARI)
Department (249)Agricultural Economics Department, NMCA, Navsari
BudgetHead (303/03126/01)303/13/REG/01503
Objective
  1. To study the trend of area, production and productivity of sugarcane in South Gujarat region
  2. To examine the total factor productivity growth and its sources in the sugar mills of South Gujarat region
  3. To identify the constraints faced by sugar mills of South Gujarat region
  4. To suggest the measures to improve the productivity of sugar mills of South Gujarat region
PI Name (NAU-EMP-2019-000743)JAYDEEP VALLABHBHAI VARASANI
PI Email jaydeepvarasani@nau.in
PI Mobile 9512744888
Year of Approval 2021
Commencement Year 2023
Completion Year 2023
Research Methodology

Sugarcane is intensively grown in the Gujarat, in which South Gujarat region alone accounts for about 90 per cent of total area under the crop  and  also  contributes  near  about 92 per  cent  of  its  total production  in  the  state. Out of total production of sugar, Gujarat state contribution about 5 % of total sugar production of India. In Gujarat, there are 19 Sugar co-operative factories. Out of this 16 Sugar co-operative factories are in South Gujarat region. Therefore, the region will be purposively selected for the study. The performance of sugarcane crop in the state of Gujarat in respect of area, production and productivity will be studied. The secondary data of area, production and productivity will be collected for the period from 2000-01 to 2019-20 year from book published by Office of Directorate of Agriculture, Gujarat state, Gandhinagar. The data related to Sugar co-operative factories will be collected from present working Sugar factories of South Gujarat (India) for the period 2011-12 to 2019-20. These Sugar co-operative factories are diverse in size, origin, ownership and presumed abilities. However, all these Sugar co-operative factories are in the same line of business (i.e., sugar production) and are working under similar market conditions. The TFP growth is estimated through slack based measure (SBM) -DEA based Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) model using one output variables, viz., sugar production (measured in million quintals) and six input variables, namely, installed capacity (as proxy for fixed capital) measured in sugar cane crushed per day in tones (TCD),  actual sugar cane crushed per day in tones (TCD), crushing days (no. of days in a year), actual crushing days (no. of days in a year), raw material (sugarcane) measured in million quintals and energy & fuel measured in million rupees. As far as the details of the sugar at the state level are concerned Directorate of Sugar, Gujarat State, Gujarat Rajya Sahakari Khand Udyog Sangh, Ahmedabad.

Compound Growth Rate

For Gujarat state as a whole compound growth rate for area, production and productivity of sugarcane crop will be calculated. The index numbers of area, production and productivity of sugarcane crop will be calculated by taking agricultural year 2000-01 as the base year. The compound growth rates will be calculated by fitting the exponential function to the index number of the area, production and productivity. The following form of the exponential function will be used:

Y = abt

Where,

Y = dependent variable for which growth rate is to be estimated

a = constant/intercept

b = regression coefficient

t = time variable in year

The compound growth rate will be obtained using logarithmic form of the equation as below:

Log Yt = Log a +  t Log b

Then the per cent compound growth rates (g) will be computed by using the relationship:

g = (antilog of log b – 1) *100

where,

g = compound growth rate per annum in percent 

 

Productivity Measurement Approaches

A non-parametric approach, known as Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) will be applied on the panel data of 9 years collected from 19 sugar mills of the state. Non-oriented and non-radial slack based measure (SBM) - DEA method will used for estimation of the TFP growth and its decomposition into technical efficiency change and technical progress.

Most commonly used measures of productivity are partial or single factor productivity (SFP) and total factor productivity (TFP). SFP is the ratio of total output to the quantity or number of the factor for which productivity is to be estimated. SFP provides a distorted view about the contribution of a factor to the total production. For instance, partial productivity of labour can be increased by reducing quantity of labour and increasing quantity of capital in the production unit.

Therefore, concept of TFP is more relevant in context of resource use efficiency. TFP is defined as the ratio of weighted sum of output to the weighted sum of inputs. Over the last three decades, researchers have developed several theories and methods of TFP measurement. Before the mid-1990s, most studies estimated TFP growth by growth accounting approach (Hsiao and Park, 2002). This approach is based on unrealistic assumptions of perfect competition and constant returns to scale. It assumes that a firm operates on its production frontier, implying that it has 100 per cent technical efficiency. Thus, TFP growth measured through this approach is due to technical change, not due to technical efficiency change (Mawson et al., 2003). In recent years, stochastic frontier analysis and DEA-based MPI have become popular approaches that use panel data for estimation of TFP of individual decision making units (DMUs). These approaches do not assume that all production units operate at 100 per cent technical efficiency.

According to the MPI approach, TFP can increase not only due to technical progress (shifting of frontier) but also due to improvement in technical efficiency (catch-up). This approach has become quite popular because: (i) it does not require price data, therefore suitable when price data are not available or price data are distorted; (ii) it rests on much weaker behavioural assumptions, since it does not assume cost minimizing or revenue maximizing behaviour; (iii) it uses panel data and provides a decomposition of productivity change into two components—technical change and technical efficiency change. The significance of the decomposition is that it provides information on the source of overall productivity change. MPI is DEA-based approach but unlike DEA that is static in nature as it assesses the efficiency of a DMU in relation to the best practice DMUs in a given year, MPI also accounts for the shift of frontier overtime. Since it is capable of decomposing the productivity growth into technical efficiency change and technical progress, it is able to shed light on the mechanism of productivity change (Ma, et al., 2002). The DEA based MPI approach was initially introduced by Caves, Christensen and Diewert (CCD) in 1982 and was empirically applied by Fare, Grosskopf, Lindgren and Roos (FGLR) in 1992 and Fare, Grosskopf, Norris and Zhing (FGNZ) in 1994. Since then, several extended versions of MPI have been developed. A few of them are: Ray and Desli (1997), Balk (2001), Kumar and Russell (2002), Chen (2003), Chen and Ali (2004), Tone (2004) and Sharp et al. (2005).

Efficiency estimated through the conventional DEA models (CCR and BCC models) is a radial measure and does not directly take into account the input-output slacks. In order to overcome this problem, recently researchers have proposed several extended versions of basic DEA models. Tone has developed a slacks-based measure of efficiency (Tone, 2001) and super efficiency (Tone, 2002). These models are non-radial and deal with input and output slacks directly. The radial MPI approach cannot precisely estimate the TFP growth as it does not account for input and output slacks. To overcome this deficiency, MPI can be estimated using slacks-based non-radial DEA models. Non-radial MPI can be computed using input or output orientation. Input-oriented SBM models take input slacks into account but do not consider output slacks while output oriented SBM models take all output slacks but no input slacks. The non-radial and non-oriented SBM models take care of both the slacks. Therefore we will applied non-radial and non-oriented SBM-DEA approach as proposed by Tone (2004) to compute MPI and its components—TECHCH and EFFCH. This approach appears to be superior to the traditional one because: it directly deals with the input and output slacks; it is unit invariant; and the efficiency estimated by it is reference-set dependent (Tone, 2004).

The SBM-DEA Models

As stated above, radial MPI model does not take into account the input/output slacks. To overcome this shortcoming, MPI will be computed using ‘Slack-based Nonradial and Non-oriented’ DEA models. The SBM-DEA and super-SBMDEA models as proposed by Tone (2004) to calculate the distance functions. These models are given as:

(NAU-EMP-2019-000743)
JAYDEEP VALLABHBHAI VARASANI
jaydeepvarasani@nau.in 9512744888 27-01-2023
Active
(NAU-EMP-1995-000728)
JAYANTILAL JERAJBHAI MAKADIA
jjmakadia@nau.in 9825640825 01/02/2021
Active
(NAU-EMP-2008-000398)
ALPESHKUMAR KANTILAL LEUA
alpeshleua@nau.in 9725039457 21/09/2023
Active
(NAU-EMP-2019-000955)
ARVINDKUMAR PURABHAI CHAUDHARY
apchaudhary@nau.in 9662838469 21/09/2023
Active
(NAU-EMP-2019-000743)
JAYDEEP VALLABHBHAI VARASANI
jaydeepvarasani@nau.in 9512744888 03/10/2023
Active
(NAU-EMP-2010-000269)
NARENDRA SUMER SINGH
ns_manohar@nau.in 9427383049 03/10/2023
Active
(NAU-EMP-2019-000955)
ARVINDKUMAR PURABHAI CHAUDHARY
apchaudhary@nau.in 9662838469 21/09/2023
Active
Sr. No. Operation Date Nature of Data Value of Data Operation Status
1 08/02/2023 Primary Interview Schedule Completed
Sr. No. Operation Date Operation Status
1 08/02/2023 Completed
Sr. No. Operation Date Operation Status
1 08/02/2023 Completed
Sr. No. Operation Date Operation Status
1 08/02/2023 Completed
2 23/01/2024 Completed